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Prediction Markets - Theory and Applications (Cód: 3977419)

Taylor & Francis (Livros Digitais)

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Prediction Markets - Theory and Applications

R$450,00

Descrição

How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the 'apos;wisdom of the crowd'apos;? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services.

The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes.

This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.

Características

Peso 0.00 Kg
Produto sob encomenda Não
Marca Taylor & Francis (Livros Digitais)
Número de Páginas 288 (aproximado)
Idioma 337
Acabamento e-book
Territorialidade Internacional
Formato Livro Digital Epub
Gratuito Não
Proteção Drm Sim
Tamanho do Arquivo 5666
Início da Venda 15/05/2011
Código do Formato Epub
Cód. Barras 9781136715686
Ano da Publicação 111