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e-book

External Liabilities and Crises (Cód: 9494263)

Luis Mr. Catão; Gian-Maria Mr. Milesi-Ferretti

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

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External Liabilities and Crises

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Descrição

We examine the determinants of external crises, focusing on the role of foreign liabilities and their composition. Using a variety of statistical tools and comprehensive data spanning 1970-2011, we find that the ratio of net foreign liabilities (NFL) to GDP is a significant crisis predictor, and the more so when it exceeds 50 percent in absolute terms and 20 percent of the country-specific historical mean. This is primarily due to net external debt--the effect of net equity liabilities is weaker and net FDI liabilities seem if anything an offset factor. We also find that: i) breaking down net external debt into its gross asset and liability counterparts does not add significant explanatory power to crisis prediction; ii) the current account is a powerful predictor, either measured unconditionally or as deviations from conventionally estimated “norms” iii) foreign exchange reserves reduce the likelihood of crisis more than other foreign asset holdings; iv) a parsimonious probit containing those and a handful of other variables has good predictive performance in- and out-of-sample. The latter result stems largely from our focus on external crises stricto sensu.

Características

Peso 0.00 Kg
Produto sob encomenda Sim
Marca INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Número de Páginas 37 (aproximado)
Idioma 337
Acabamento e-book
Territorialidade Internacional
Formato Livro Digital Epub
Gratuito Não
Proteção Drm Sim
Tamanho do Arquivo 1694
Início da Venda 16/05/2013
Código do Formato Epub
Cód. Barras 9781484374450
Ano da Publicação 113
AutorLuis Mr. Catão; Gian-Maria Mr. Milesi-Ferretti